AXIOM MACRO · About

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Axiom Macro is a global macro & markets terminal. It pulls live market and macroeconomic data, computes a set of deterministic indicators (every number is produced by Python, never by an AI), classifies the market cycle with the Baid Stage Engine, and uses Google Gemini only to narrate the computed figures — the AI never invents numbers.

The Baid Stage Engine

The signature model. It maps two inputs — breadth (the % of index constituents trading above their 200-day moving average) and the VIX (volatility / fear) — to a market-cycle stage, a sub-phase, and a 0–100 “compass” position around the cycle.

Bear Stage 2 — Full Capitulation — breadth < 20% and VIX > 25. The bottom; aggressive deploy zone.
Bull Stage 1 — Recovery — breadth < 35% and VIX > 20. Early bounce off the low.
Bear Stage 1 — The Trap — breadth 45–70% with VIX 15–22. Good news ignored — distribution risk.
Bull Stage 2 — Alpha Phase — breadth 35–70%. The long earnings-driven middle of the cycle.
Bull Stage 3 — Euphoria — breadth > 70%. Complacency building; below VIX 13.5 = peak euphoria.

Breadth is computed from the real Nifty-50 constituents (% above their 200-DMA), not approximated. The matching stage playbook (Action tab) updates automatically with the stage.

Tabs

Overview — The Baid stage banner + the Macro-8 panel and composite risk score.
Markets — Regional index grids, commodities, and forex — with price, distance from the 50- and 200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and a tactical signal. Forex shows carry/regime signals.
Macro-8 — Eight macro/valuation gauges plus the 0–100 composite risk score (see below).
Recession — The recession-probability engine: US (Sahm Rule, 10y-2y yield curve) and Malaysia (localized Sahm, MGS spread, E&E export momentum, PMI), each blended into a 0–100 score, with an AI executive brief.
Crisis — Bear-market-bottom (India / US) and euphoria-top condition checklists, with a live assessment of the quantitative conditions (breadth / VIX) against the current readings.
Action — The stage playbook — what to do in the current cycle stage — plus all stage playbooks.
Calendar — Upcoming central-bank meetings, economic releases, major-company earnings, and market holidays.
News — Categorized macro/markets headlines (geopolitics, markets, central banks, India & ASEAN, commodities).
AI — A Gemini morning briefing and a chatbot — both grounded strictly in the computed readings.
Personal — A password-protected watchlist, allocation targets, alert thresholds, and notes.

Macro-8 indicators & the risk score

CAPE (Shiller P/E) — Cyclically-adjusted price/earnings — a long-run valuation gauge. Higher = more expensive.
Buffett indicator — US market cap ÷ GDP. Numerator is the measured market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities from the Fed Z.1 Flow of Funds (FRED) — no proxy factor. Hover the value for the exact calculation.
HY credit spread — High-yield bond spread. Low = complacency (risk), high = credit stress.
Yield curve (10y-2y) — Inversion (< 0) is a classic recession lead; status bands: Deeply/Mildly Inverted → Re-steepening → Normal.
M2 money supply — Broad money ($bn). VIX = volatility/fear; DXY = US-dollar strength (EM headwind when high).

The composite risk score (0–100) is a transparent weighted blend: CAPE 20, Buffett 15, HY spread 15, yield curve 15, VIX 10, DXY 10, Brent 10, Gold 5. Note the deliberate paradoxes — a low HY spread and a low VIX both raise risk (complacency). Bands: Low → Moderate → Elevated → High → Extreme.

Reading the numbers

Values carry their units: $/currency code for prices and FX (e.g. USD/INR is in ₹), pts for index levels, % for rates and spreads, and a 0–100 scale for the stage compass, risk score, and recession scores.

Data sources — all free

Yahoo Finance — Equity indices, commodities, FX, VIX/DXY/Bitcoin (prices + history). No key.
FRED (St. Louis Fed) — US macro: unemployment, Treasury yields, HY spread, M2, GDP. Free key.
BNM / data.gov.my (DOSM) — Malaysia: MGS yields, labour, trade, PMI. Public, no key.
Google News RSS — Categorized headlines (aggregates Reuters/Bloomberg/AP/etc.). No key.
Finnhub (free tier) — Major-company earnings calendar. Free key.
holidays (offline) — Market/public holidays per country. No network.

Methodology guardrail

Every indicator — moving averages, the Baid stage, the risk score, the recession scores — is computed by deterministic, unit-tested Python in axiom.quant and axiom.markets. The LLM (Gemini) is used only to write the narrative briefings and answer questions, and is constrained to cite only the figures the engines produce. It never performs arithmetic or invents data.